The latest opinion poll for the 2023 year-end by Global InfoAnalytics shows the flag bearer of the opposition National Democratic Congress, John Dramani Mahama, has taken a huge lead over the governing New Patriotic Party’s candidate, the vice president Dr Mahamudu Bawumia in the race to be the next president of Ghana in 2025.
According to the poll, almost eleven months to the elections, John Dramani Mahama (JDM) leads with 53.2% while Dr Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB) is on 29.6%. The former Trade and Industry Minister, Alan Kwadwo Kyeremanten (AKK), has 7.7% support of voters. Nearly 4.2% of voters intend to vote for other candidates whilst 5.3% are undecided.
Among first time voters, JDM leads with 51%, DMB 25% and AKK 8%. 7% intend to vote for other candidates and 9% are undecided.
In a new development in the poll, JDM now leads in all the regions except North-East region where DMB’s advantage has now narrowed.
For the first in the history of our polling, JDM now leads in the Ashanti and Eastern regions. Though those poll could be an outlier, the NPP’s poor performance may reflect growing concern about voter apathy in those regions.
When voters were asked, between 24-hr Economy, Blue Economy/Digitization and Great Transformational Plan, which of those slogans/policies has caught their attention. Approximately 50% said the 24-Hr Economy, 25% said Blue Economy/Digitization, 8% said GTP and 17% said none of them.
On the direction of the country, the poll shows 68% of Ghanaians believe the country is headed in the wrong direction compared to 22% who believe it is headed in the right direction and 10% said they did not have an opinion.
On the president’s job performance, the poll also shows 63% of voters disapprove of the president’s performance compared to 32% who approve of his performance, while 5% did not have an opinion.
When voters were asked to describe their standard of living in the last 12 months, 54% said it has gotten worse, 20% said it has improved, 22% said it has not changed and 4% did not have an opinion. The polls show a significant increase in the number of voters who said their standard of living has deteriorated, rising from 47% in October 2023 to 54% in December 2023.
The poll also shows that the NDC is on course to form majority in parliament, as the generic poll predicts 52% of voters plan to vote for NDC candidates in the 2024 elections, up from 46% in the October 2023 while the NPP is currently on 31% compared to 38% recorded in the October 2023.
On the question of whether NPP can break the eight, 60% of voters said NPP will not break the eight compared to 21% who said yes, they will and 19% did not have an opinion.
The poll shows growing confidence of voters in the Ghana Police Service as 58% say they have confidence in the service to manage the 2024 election compared to 32% who don’t have confidence in the force, while 10% have no opinion.
For the Electoral Commission (EC), majority of voters, 54% now have confidence in the elections management body compared to 38% who have no confidence and 8% did not have opinion.
When voters were asked about what divide Ghanaians, 56% of voters said politics, 27% said ethnicity and 17% said religion.
However, when voters were asked whether religion of the candidates will play a role on who they intend to vote for in the 2024 elections, 76% said it will not play a role while 24% said it will. For ethnicity, 74% said it will not play a role compared to 26% who said it will.
The poll was conducted between 22nd – 30th December 2023 with a sample of 5,881 respondents in all the 16 regions and across 82 constituencies.
