Fuel prices in Ghana are projected to decrease by between 5% and 9% in the first pricing window of June, offering much-needed relief to consumers amidst ongoing inflationary pressures.
This forecast, issued by the Africa Sustainable Energy Centre (ASEC), largely attributes the anticipated drop to the recent appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi against the US dollar.
According to ASEC’s latest market assessment, petrol is expected to retail between GHS 12.00 and GHS 12.60 per litre, while diesel could sell for between GHS 12.60 and GHS 13.20 per litre during the upcoming pricing window. Ghana’s fuel pricing mechanism is adjusted biweekly, reflecting changes in global oil prices, exchange rates, and import costs.
While global crude oil prices have seen a dip—from approximately $85 per barrel in January to around $64 currently—the cedi’s strengthening has had a more immediate impact on local pump prices. “Because petroleum imports are dollar-denominated, a stronger cedi means lower procurement costs for oil marketing companies, which should translate into reduced prices at the pumps,” ASEC explained in a statement.
The anticipated reduction is expected to ease transportation costs and overall inflation, providing short-term respite for households and businesses. However, ASEC cautioned that falling oil prices could put pressure on government revenue. As a net exporter of crude oil, Ghana heavily relies on international oil prices to support foreign exchange inflows and budgetary funding. With Brent crude now more than 24% lower since the start of the year, the government risks earning less from petroleum-related exports.
“Unless these declines are purely exchange rate-driven, lower global prices typically result in reduced state revenue. The government may need to ramp up production volumes to offset shortfalls,” ASEC noted.
Looking ahead, the think tank projects that global crude oil prices could remain in the $62–$65 per barrel range, driven by higher output from OPEC+ producers and softening demand from major economies like the U.S. and China. ASEC stated it would continue monitoring market trends and provide evidence-based insights to guide policy. It also urged the government to balance consumer relief with long-term strategies for energy security and fiscal resilience.
Fuel prices remain a critical economic indicator in Ghana, influencing inflation, cost of living, and industrial activity. While the expected drop in pump prices may be temporary, it signals a positive turn in economic sentiment as the country navigates its recovery path.
