UK-based Fitch Ratings has stated that there is a low risk of policy slippage in the lead-up to the December 2024 elections in Ghana, given the government’s strong commitment to the International Monetary Fund programme.
However, it pointed out that there is currently greater uncertainty over the degree of commitment of a new administration.
“We estimate the 2024 primary surplus, on a commitment basis, will reach 0.3% of Gross Domestic Product, representing a 4.6 percentage points adjustment compared with 2022, driven by a 0.6 percentage points increase in revenue and a 4.1 percentage points reduction in primary expenditure”.
“Despite a record of fiscal slippage in election years, we consider there is a low risk of policy slippage in the lead up to the elections due in December 2024, given the strong commitment of authorities to the IMF programme, but there is currently greater uncertainty over the degree of commitment of a new administration”, it added.
It projected Ghana’s primary surplus to reach 0.9% of Gross Domestic Product in 2026 on a commitment basis.
It continued that the suspension of external debt service, and merchandise import reduction that more than offset lower export performance, enabled Ghana to reach a current account surplus of 1.8% of GDP in 2023, from a 2.3% deficit in 2022.
“We anticipate the current account balance to return to a deficit of 0.7% of GDP in 2024, on difficulties in the cacao sector and external debt service resumption, followed by 1.5% and 1.7% in 2025 and 2026, respectively”.
These moderate current account deficits (CAD), compounded with large disbursements from international financing institutions, it said would enable gross international reserves to gradually increase to 2.8 months of current external payments in 2026, from 1.6 months in 2023.
